RBA meeting and US jobs reports in focus while Coronavirus Saga ContinuesPosted on Monday, February 3 2020 at 8:16 am GMT+0000
The main driver for financial markets remains the Coronavirus and its potential impact on the global economy. The number of confirmed cases and fatalities keeps climbing, and China still seems unable to contain the virus. If it continues to spread at a rapid rate, china growth might take a severe hit and its major trading partners certainly suffer. Thus, risk sentiment will remain sensitive to any virus-related news.
Apart from the virus updates, the coming week will be an extremely busy one and there’s a cascade of crucial economic data to keep things exciting. The spotlight will be on the nonfarm payrolls report in the United States, but key indicators out of the Eurozone, Australia, China and Canada should also attract attention.
In the political sphere, this week also brings the beginning of the primary voting season for the US Presidential Election on November 3rd. On Monday, the Democratic primary nomination process kicks off with the Iowa caucuses. This will be the first state to vote on who should represent the Democratic Party against Donald Trump at the presidential election. While markets typically don’t react much to primaries, this time may be different as the frontrunner in Iowa is Senator Bernie Sanders – who advocates for higher taxes – so if he wins the state, that might spook stock markets.
Earnings reports continue through the week with highlights including Google, Baidu, Sony, Cigna, BP, Total, Disney, and GM.
In brief, expected economic data for the week are as follows:
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (1:45 GMT)
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (15:00 GMT)
– RBA Interest Rate Decision (3:30 GMT)
– RBA Rate Statement (3:30 GMT)
– New Zealand Employment Change (21:45 GMT)
– New Zealand Unemployment rate (21:45 GMT)
– China Caixin Services and Composite PMI (1:45 GMT)
– RBA’s Lowe Speech (1:30 GMT)
– Euro Area Retail Sales (10:00 GMT)
– ECB’s Lagarde Speech (12:15 GMT)
– Canada Trade Balance (13:30 GMT)
– US Trade Balance (13:30 GMT)
– US ADP Employment Change (13:15 GMT)
– US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (15:00 GMT)
– Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 GMT)
– Australia Trade Balance (0:30 GMT)
– ECB’s Lagarde Speech (8:00 GMT)
– ECB Economic Bulletin (10:00 GMT)
– RBA’s Lowe Speech (22:30 GMT)
– RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (12:30 GMT)
– China Trade Balance (Tentative)
– Canada Employment Change (13:30 GMT)
– Non-Farm Employment Change (13:30 GMT)
– Unemployment Rate (13:30 GMT)
– Average Hourly Earnings m/m (13:30 GMT)