FX market outlook

FX market outlook

Posted on Friday, December 9 2016 at 8:55 am GMT+0000

Euro consolidates losses after confusing ECB move; China’s inflation rises.


China released data today which showed inflation was on the rise in the world’s second largest economy. Consumer prices rose 2.3% year-on-year in November, which was faster than the expected 2.2% rise but beat the previous month’s 2.1% increase. The main driver behind the quicker pace of inflation was the rise in food prices.

The Australian dollar initially fell despite the upbeat figures out of China, which is Australia’s major trading partner. The aussie dipped to a session low of $0.7441 but soon bounced to a session high of $0.7472.

Earlier in the Asian session, Australia released home loans data for October which showed a 0.8% decline month-on-month, compared to a 1.0% dip expected. The data was still worse than September’s 1.5% increase.

The euro remained broadly weaker and consolidated losses made after yesterday’s ECB decision to slow down the pace of asset purchases and extend the QE period by an additional nine months after March 2017. An initial jump to $1.0873 yesterday was soon retraced and the euro slid to an Asian session low of $1.0588 today. ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments in a press conference were interpreted as being dovish by the markets. The euro fell to 0.8416 against sterling after a spike to 0.8571.

The pound traded sideways against the dollar in the Asian session, remaining within a range of $1.2569 and $1.2594. Later in the day, trade numbers from the UK will be published.

The US dollar edged up to a session high of 114.55 yen but still remains in a range since early this month.

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is due out of the US later in the day which would be interesting to watch in terms of an impact on the dollar.

Oil prices were up today ahead of a non-OPEC members meeting this weekend. There is optimism that these oil producers might agree to cut output following the successful OPEC deal at the end of November.

Brent crude bounced to $54.12 a barrel after touching $52.79 yesterday. WTI oil rose to $51.25 a barrel to retrace yesterday’s decline which took prices below the key $50 a barrel level.