FX market outlook

FX market outlook

Posted on Wednesday, July 5 2017 at 8:21 am GMT+0000

US dollar steady ahead of Fed minutes; euro, sterling modestly up

Following yesterday’s low trading activity during the US session amid the 4th of July holiday in the US, not much data has been released during today’s Asian session either. Both, the euro and sterling modestly gained against the dollar. Looking at commodities, both oil prices and gold were up.

The Australian dollar retraced some of yesterday’s losses, last trading at $0.7614, after tumbling on Tuesday as a result of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to maintain a neutral policy stance. It seems that traders dismissed a mixed bi-weekly global dairy auction report that showed average dairy prices edged lower from the prior period, but whole milk powder, a key New Zealand export, rose.

The greenback held steady against the yen during the Asian trading session, following some weakness yesterday. The dollar was trading at 113.26 yen, ahead of the European trading session. Looking ahead, the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes will be the focus of the day that could induce significant moves in the US dollar. Ahead of Friday’s key jobs report, investors want to gauge how committed the Fed was to hiking rates again this year, as well as any details on plans to wind back its balance sheet.

The euro gained against the US dollar during the Asian session, retracing yesterday’s losses on a more cautious tone regarding the monetary policy outlook by the ECB’s Chief Economist, Peter Praet. Upside in the Spanish services PMI provided a boost to the euro. At 58.3, June services PMI came in above the expectations of 56.5 and the prior month’s 57.3. Euro/dollar was last trading at 1.1364. Looking ahead, the pair could be driven by services PMI data that are scheduled to be released for the eurozone and a number of its member countries, including Germany, France and Italy.

The pound also gained modestly against the greenback during the Asian session, with pound/dollar last trading at 1.2922. Similar to the eurozone, focus in the UK will be on services PMI for June. At 53.5, the forecast is just slightly below May’s reading of 53.8.

In the commodities markets, gold rose for the second consecutive day, last trading above the $1,225 an ounce handle. The precious metal has been gaining as it is perceived as a safe-haven in the wake of another long-range missile test by North Korea.

Oil prices across have been rising as the European session was starting. WTI inched higher, reaching $47.13 a barrel, following several days of gains. Brent crude has been also gaining, up 0.26%, last trading at $49.76 a barrel.