Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) – Near fresh lows; vulnerable to more downside

Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) – Near fresh lows; vulnerable to more downside

Posted on Monday, October 3 2022 at 8:56 pm GMT+0000

Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) saw a slight ease in negative pressures during the last week of September, but the price continues to trade heavy inside the falling regression channel stretched from the November ATH, within a breathing distance of the fresh two-year low of around 18,000 posted a couple of weeks ago. However, after painting its second positive weekly candle in the last four, the crypto-king kicked off the first trading week of October on the wrong foot, with a downside gap of 1.30%. The liquidations for the day came at $17.12 million, with 55% being in short positions.

The negatively charged 10-and 40-week exponential moving averages are safeguarding the 10-month-old downward trajectory, with the former successfully curbing any recovery attempts since early August. Additionally, since oscillators keep sending discouraging signals regarding the directional impetus, odds for further weakness in the coming weeks remain elevated. Specifically, the momentum indicator is sloping south in the negative waters, and the RSI remains flat and weak just above the 30-oversold threshold.

Hence, if sellers manage to finally squeeze the price beneath the 18,000 floor, they will initially pursue the Fibonacci golden number of the June – September up-leg at 14,300 overlapping with the June 2019 peak. A drop below these barricades will shift the spotlights to the 227.2% Fibonacci level around 9,900.

On the other side, if the bulls manage to push hard off the 18,000 base, they will initially fight with the 10-week exponential moving average and the upper bar of the channel. By overstepping that obstacle, they may advance to the most recent high of 25,300. Overrunning that key barrier will raise optimism for some additional positive developments, shifting attention instantly toward the 28,800 – 29,000 tough resistance area linking the 40-week exponential moving average and the June 2021 bottom. A decisive step above that resistance band could reach the January inside swing bottom of 32,800.

All in all, Bitcoin Futures remain vulnerable beneath the moving averages, and any pickup in selling appetite will bolster the long-term negative picture pushing the price to new lows near 14,300. A jump out of the channel, however, could raise hopes for some recovery.