Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) – Bears looking to underpin the long-term bearish structure

Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) – Bears looking to underpin the long-term bearish structure

Posted on Monday, August 29 2022 at 8:50 pm GMT+0000

Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) have been on the slide since peaking in mid-August at around 25,300, as the 14-week simple moving average managed to shut the way towards the upper-line of the regression channel stretched from the November ATH. The flagship cryptocurrency posted two consecutive red weekly candles and almost erased all of the July gains. Moreover, it kicked off the last week of August with a 2.30% downside gap skyrocketing the long positions’ liquidations. However, late Monday gains rebalanced somehow the total liquidations of 32.44M during the day, pushing the overall liquidations of short positions to 52.9%.

The diving 14-and 21-week simple moving averages are endorsing the bearish bias, while the oscillators are conveying that momentum remains weak, leaning towards further declines, as the TSI is holding below its trigger line, far beneath the zero mark, and the RSI is hovering deep in the bearish territory. Additionally, despite nudging back below 20, the stochastic is still exhibiting a bearish charge, and have yet to confirm oversold conditions.

The crypto-king is now approaching the 18-months low of 18,500 and a decisive step lower will underpin the long-term bearish structure, sparking a steeper sell-off toward the middle-line of the regression channel ahead of the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the June – August up-leg at 14,300, located near the 2019 highs. Even deeper, sellers could target the 10,700 – 10,000 support foundation formed between the 2020 highs and the 227.2% Fibonacci level.

Alternatively, in the wake of any improvement in sentiments, the price will jump back to the 14-week simple moving average. By overrunning this curbing line, bulls will challenge the 25,300 – 26,600 tough resistance section linking the upper-line of the channel, and the most recent peak, encompassing the 21-week simple moving average.  A step beyond those barricades will see an extension towards the June 2021 bottom of 28,800, while higher attention will turn to the last January’s low of 32,900. By knocking down that barricade, the buyers will likely navigate towards the 2022 peak of 48,500.

Overall, Bitcoin has been dropping consistently over the last couple of weeks, while sustaining a sturdy bearish bias. A decisive close below 18,500 will further strengthen negative tendencies.